Weekly Insights

September 16, 2019

ARC-CO vs. PLC: Which Won in the 2014 Farm Bill?

As producers begin to think about their 2018 Farm Bill election (ARC vs. PLC), it can be helpful to reflect on the 2014 Farm Bill and how those decisions played out. Specifically, which program- ARC-CO or PLC- had the highest payout? This week’s post considers county-level estimates for the corn, soybean, and wheat programs.

September 9, 2019

Biggest Change for the 2018 Farm Bill: The Farm Economy

Over the next 6 months, producers will need to, again, decide between the ARC and PLC programs. These programs were first introduced in the 2014 Farm Bill and have been reauthorized – with a few changes– by the 2018 Farm Bill. Back in 2014, ARC-CO was favored for corn (93% of program acres), soybeans (97% […]

September 3, 2019

Digging into the Improved Net Farm Income Forecast

Last week the USDA released its latest estimates of U.S. net farm income. This report left many scratching their heads as the outlook for 2019 significantly improved since the initial March estimate. Specifically, the current estimate of $88 billion in net farm income for 2019 is much higher than the March estimate of $69 billion. […]

August 26, 2019

Cash Rents Fall, but Enough?

By Brent Gloy The second article we wrote on this site was an analysis of cash rental trends.  That was back in 2014 when cash rents had been escalating rapidly and commodity prices had turned sharply lower.  The central question was where rents were headed.  We concluded that annual large declines (in excess of 10%) […]

August 19, 2019

Indiana Farmland Values Fall for Fifth Straight Year

By Brent Gloy Farmland values are an important indicator of the health of the U.S. farm economy.  Farmland accounts for the vast majority of the assets of the farm sector.  As farm incomes have slid we have carefully watched indicators of farmland values for clues to how well they are holding up.  Purdue’s farmland value […]

August 12, 2019

2019 Soybean Yield Guide- Are Low Yields Catching Up Faster?

By David Widmar   Following up on our earlier post, the 2019 Corn Yield Guide, this week’s post is the 2019 Soybean Yield Guide. Like the earlier post, the goal of this week’s post isn’t to provide an estimate or comment on other yield forecasts. However, this week’s post uses historic, detrended yield data to […]