2022 Yield Forecast Challenge- FAQ

1) How do I get started? 

There are two ways to get started:

  1. Start Your Risk-Free Trial
  2. Sign up for an upcoming Demo
    1. April 1, 12 pm central
    2. April 8, 12 pm central
    3. April 15, 12pm central

Lastly, you can reach out to Ryan to schedule a one-on-one demo and discuss options for your team, organization, or peer group.

2) It’s after April 15th, is it too late to get started? 

Absolutely not. Specific to the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, you can join at any time. While starting in, say, August might make it difficult to be in contention for the $1,600 grand prize, there will be monthly prizes, prizes for the first and last half of the contest, and always opportunities to learn.

Outside of the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, AEI Premium and AFN always provide content and challenges users thinking.

3) How do I win?

Every AFN question receives two scores: the percentile rank and participation score.

The percentile rank reports how well your forecasts did compare to all other participants. So a percentile rank of 62% means you did better than 62% of other forecasts but worse than the top 38% of forecasters.

Keep in mind there is a difference between outcomes and the quality of the forecast. In most cases, good forecasts result in high scores. But sometimes, everyone can have a “good forecast” and a forecast might end up with a low percentile rank as the scores are relative to all other forecasts. On the other hand, sometimes “bad forecast” end up with high scores as being wrong could still be the best (or least wrong) forecast. 

The participation score reports how active you were in forecasting the question. For example, a score of 99% means you had a forecast submitted for 99% of the period the question was opened.

For more details about the score, check out the following video and articles (here, here, and here)

Specific to the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, you will earn points for each question. The point earned will be your percentile rank multiplied by the participation. Using the examples above, points earned would be 6,123 (66*99). Each question could generate a maximum of 10,000 points (100*100) and a minimum of 0.

As the contest gets underway, a leaderboard will be constructed to help you benchmark your progress.

Tip: The participation score is the one that is most in your control. Strive for a participation score >90% but submit a forecast – even if it’s the 50% coinflip- as soon as the new questions are opened. 

4) What are the prizes?

The grand prize- for the winner with the highest points across all sixteen questions – is $1,600.

For questions resolved between May and August, the user with the highest points will win a Yeti Cooler.

For questions resolved between September and November, a 2nd Round prize will go to the user with the most accumulated point during the period. This will also be a Yeti Cooler (if you win both, we’ll come up with something creative).

Finally, we’ll be sharing small prizes for those with strong forecasts throughout the contest.

5) What are the 16 questions?

Round 1: May Questions
    • What is the probability of the May 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above 181.0 bushels per acre?
      • Question opens: 4/15/2022
      • Question resolved: 5/12/2022
    • What is the probability of the May 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above 51.5 bushels per acre?
      • Question opens: 4/15/2022
      • Question resolved: 5/12/2022
Round 1: June Questions
    • What is the probability of the June 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the May WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 5/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 6/10/2022
    • What is the probability of the June 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the May WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 5/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 6/10/2022
Round 1: July Questions
    • What is the probability of the July 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the June WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 6/10/2022
      • Question resolved: 7/12/2022
    • What is the probability of the July 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the June WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 6/10/2022
      • Question resolved: 7/12/2022
Round 1: August Questions
    • What is the probability of the August 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the July WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 7/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 8/12/2022
    • What is the probability of the August 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the July WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 7/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 8/12/2022
Round 2: September Questions
    • What is the probability of the September 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the August WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 8/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 9/12/2022
    • What is the probability of the September 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the August WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 8/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 9/12/2022
Round 2: October Questions
 
    • What is the probability of the October 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the September WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 9/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 10/12/2022
    • What is the probability of the October 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the September WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 9/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 10/12/2022
Round 2: November Questions
    • What is the probability of the November 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above <the October WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 10/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 11/9/2022
    • What is the probability of the November 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above <the October WASDE estimate>?
      • Question opens: 10/12/2022
      • Question resolved: 11/9/2022
Round 2: The Long-Burn Questions
    • What is the probability of the November 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. corn yields above 181.0 bushels per acre?
      • Question opens: 4/15/2022
      • Question resolved: 11/9/2022
    • What is the probability of the November 2022 WASDE report estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yields above 51.5 bushels per acre?
      • Question opens: 4/15/2022
      • Question resolved: 11/9/2022