2024 Yield Forecast Challenge- FAQ

1) How do I get started?

There are two ways to get started:

Start Your Risk-Free Trial

You can also email to schedule a one-on-one demo and discuss options for your team, organization, or peer group.

2) It’s after April 29th, is it too late to get started?

Absolutely not. You can join the 2024 Yield Forecast Challenge at any time. While starting in, say, August might make it difficult to be in contention for the $1,600 grand prize, there will be prizes for the first and last half of the contest, and always opportunities to learn.

Beyond the 2024 Yield Forecast Challenge, AEI Premium and AFN always provide content that challenges users’ thinking.

3) How do I win?

Every AFN question receives two scores: the percentile rank and participation score.

The percentile rank reports how well your forecasts compared to all other participants. So a percentile rank of 62% means you did better than 62% of other forecasts but worse than the top 38% of forecasters.

Keep in mind there is a difference between outcomes and the quality of the forecast. In most cases, good forecasts result in high scores. But sometimes, everyone can have a “good forecast” and a forecast might end up with a low percentile rank as the scores are relative to all other forecasts. On the other hand, sometimes “bad forecasts” end up with high scores as being wrong could still be the best (or least wrong) forecast.

The participation score reports how active you were in forecasting the question. For example, a score of 99% means you had a forecast submitted for 99% of the period the question was opened.

For more details about the score, check out the following video and articles (here, here, and here)

Specific to the 2024 Yield Forecast Challenge, you will earn points for each question. The points earned will be your percentile rank multiplied by your participation. Using the examples above, points earned would be 6,123 (66*99). Each question could generate a maximum of 10,000 points (100*100) and a minimum of 0.

As the contest gets underway, a leaderboard will be constructed to help you benchmark your progress.

Tip: The participation score is the one that is most in your control. Strive for a participation score >90% but submit a forecast – even if it’s the 50% coinflip – as soon as the new questions are opened.

4) What are the prizes?

The grand prize – for the winner with the highest points across all 16 questions – is $1,600.

For questions resolved between May and August, the user with the highest points will be announced.

For questions resolved between September and November, the 2nd Round winner be the user with the most accumulated points during the period.

Finally, we’ll be sharing small prizes for those with strong forecasts throughout the contest.

5) What are the 16 questions?

Round 1: May Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the May 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above 181.0 bushels per acre?
  - Question opens: 4/29/2024
  - Question resolved: 5/10/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the May 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above 52.0 bushels per acre?
  - Question opens: 4/29/2024
  - Question resolved: 5/10/2024

Round 1: June Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the June 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the May WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 5/10/2024
  - Question resolved: 6/12/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the June 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the May WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 5/10/2024
  - Question resolved: 6/12/2024

Round 1: July Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the July 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the June WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 6/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 7/12/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the July 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the June WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 6/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 7/12/2024

Round 1: August Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the August 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the July WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 7/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 8/12/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the August 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the July WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 7/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 8/12/2024

Round 2: September Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the September 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the August WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 8/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 9/12/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the September 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the August WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 8/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 9/12/2024

Round 2: October Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the October 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the September WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 9/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 10/11/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the October 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the September WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 9/12/2024
  - Question resolved: 10/11/2024

Round 2: November Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the November 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above <the October WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 10/11/2024
  - Question resolved: 11/8/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the November 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above <the October WASDE estimate>?
  - Question opens: 10/11/2024
  - Question resolved: 11/8/2024

Round 2: The Long-Burn Questions

- What do you think is the probability of the November 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield is above 181.0 bushels per acre?
  - Question opens: 4/29/2024
  - Question resolved: 11/8/2024
- What do you think is the probability of the November 2024 WASDE report estimating the 2024 U.S. soybean yield is above 52.0 bushels per acre?
  - Question opens: 4/29/2024
  - Question resolved: 11/8/2024