By David Widmar

Gasoline consumption was a timely economic indicator during the pandemic and subsequent economic recovery. In addition to a weekly measure of activity, the data was directly relevant to U.S. ethanol usage and, in turn, corn usage.

Readers will also recall earlier discussions around gasoline’s long-term trends and the dramatic shift after the Great Recession (here and in Corn Saves America). This week, we’ve reviewed the latest gasoline data – including consumption and driving activity – to consider if conditions have returned to normal.

Gasoline consumption

Each week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an estimate of gasoline consumption. To be clear, the estimate is technically finished motor gasoline supplied and is a proxy measure of consumption. In 2023, consumption averaged 8.79 million barrels per day (Figure 1). The good news is that consumption was nearly 1% higher than in 2022 and 8% higher than in 2020. The not-so-good news is that consumption in 2023 lagged behind 2021 activity (8.96 Mbps) and pre-pandemic levels. Between 2015 and 2019, pre-pandemic gasoline consumption averaged 9.28 mbpd. Using that benchmark, consumption in 2023 was roughly 5% behind pre-pandemic levels.

Figure 1. U.S. Weekly Supplied Motor Gasoline, Annual Weekly Average. 2015-2023. Data Source: US EIA.

 

Miles driven

In a separate, unrelated, database the Department of Transportation estimates the total miles driven each month. Figure 2 reports annual activity between 2000-2022, which shows that driving slowed during the 2008 Great Recession and took several years to recover. Activity increased between 2012 and 2019 but slumped during 2020. Even in 2021 and 2022, activity lagged behind 2017-2019 observations. Annual vehicle miles traveled reached an all-time high of 3,261 billion in 2019. In 2022, activity was roughly 3% lower.

Figure 2. Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled, U.S. 2000-2022. Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation.

 

Unfortunately, 2023 annual totals aren’t available yet, but data through October shows an uptick in year-to-date activity (Figure 3). More specifically, considering only activity for the first 10 months of the year, driving in 2023 was 2.3% higher than in 2022. Furthermore, vehicle miles traveled are only 1% behind the 2019 peak. A new driving record is unlikely in 2023, but it’s certainly possible in 2024.

Figure 3. Vehicle Miles Traveled Through October 2015-2023. Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation.

Wrapping it up

Has U.S. driving activity returned to normal? It depends on the data you consider. In 2023, gasoline consumption (Figure 1) was nearly 5% behind the pre-pandemic norms, but vehicle miles traveled was an estimated 1% behind the 2019 peak. Why are these different? The simple explanation is that less gasoline is being consumed per mile driven primarily due to more fuel-efficient vehicles, including electric vehicles (EVs).

Discussions about the future of renewable fuels are often heavily focused on the strategic threat EVs present. However, miles driven and broad fuel efficiency gains will also affect the future size of future renewable fuel markets. In the long run, the share of U.S. cars that are EVs will be a critical factor, but those adoption rates will be hard to predict. In the meantime, overall driving activity will be the more relevant trend to monitor over the next few years.